With Year-end statements in hand, now is a good time to “size up” just how 2018 turned out, financially speaking. Enjoying 2017 returns in the double digits, 2018 was looked upon to continue adding equity, after all, the pundits were hailing low unemployment, new lower tax rates for all, the economy humming along just fine…..then came the “ Trade War”. Instigated by the new “ Sheriff in town”, imposing high tariffs on Hundreds of Billions of dollars of imports, the slide downward began.
Through the summer, we were treated to one announcement after another of new tariffs on all sorts of commodities; and, from the likes of China, India and Canada, among others, announcements of their own imposing of tariffs on our exports, in retaliation.
By the Fall, a heavy slump set in; more down days than up in the financial markets, not to mention the Shutdown of our government right before Xmas.
For many, the year ended in the “red”…stocks were pummeled as some investors “ran for the exits” while others just “cringed”. How does one reconcile such an awful year and still remain committed to investing?
I found comfort in looking at things differently; as 2 yr average..2017 & 2018; a handsome 10% return for 2017 opposed to a dismal –5% for 2018 (from year end 2017)… a 15% gap….yau-za!!! However, dividing the gap over the 2 year period, each moving 7.5% toward the middle, would close the gap yielding 2.5% each year; not a lot more than having been fully invested in A Money Market account, but erases the “negative”, at least in my mind.
And, in spite of all this, 2019 is shaping up not too badly. In just the first 6 weeks of the year, many Mutual Funds have returned 8% to10% over price per share (pps) lows of 12/31/18, erasing approx. 80 percent (4%) of that year end loss (5%). Put another way, could we be feel better looking at a 2yr 6wk average Feb 2019 (-1%) Dec 2017 (+10%) a gap of 11% resulting in 4.5% ………just saying…..
Going forward…..who knows… suffice to say that we’ll have good years and bad…… but may the good ones out weigh the bad ones. And, for those on the sidelines, perhaps now is the time to re invest… buying low and slow.
Regards: Cents Maker